Sudan
Active civil war between SAF and RSF since 2023. Widespread displacement; access to affected areas via humanitarian corridors only.
- Capital
- Khartoum
- Region
- North Africa
- Population
- 48.1M
Active civil war
- Overall risk
- Critical
- Risk trend
- Increasing
- Confidence
- High
- Last reviewed
- 15 September 2026
- Intelligence coverage
- Active
- TerrorismHigh
- Political instabilityCritical
- Conflict zonesCritical
- Maritime securityModerate
- Cyber threatsModerate
- Travel riskCritical
- Violent & organised crimeCritical
- Kidnap & ransomCritical
| Category | Current risk | Trend | Change | Confidence | Reviewed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall risk | Critical | deteriorating | +1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Terrorism | High | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Political instability | Critical | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Conflict zones | Critical | deteriorating | +1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Maritime security | Moderate | deteriorating | +2 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Cyber threats | Moderate | deteriorating | +2 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Travel risk | Critical | deteriorating | +1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Violent & organised crime | Critical | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Kidnap & ransom | Critical | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Civil unrest & protest | Critical | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Humanitarian access | Critical | deteriorating | +1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Health & medical | Critical | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Infrastructure & power | High | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Climate & natural hazard | Critical | deteriorating | +1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Disinformation & influence ops | High | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
Direction and change reflect movement in recorded incident tempo against the previous assessment block. Confidence reflects the density of corroborated reporting held for that category, not the severity of the rating.
| Minor | Moderate | Serious | Major | Severe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain | |||||
| Likely | |||||
| Possible | |||||
| Unlikely | |||||
| Rare |
Select a category chip to see how its placement was reached.
Highlighted bars are the most recent four weeks — the window the desk uses for tempo comparison.
- Armed conflict1
- Critical1
- KRT · Khartoum IntlKhartoum · average delay 37 minCivil war conditions; scheduled civil traffic suspended or diverted.
- PZU · Port Sudan New IntlPort Sudan · average delay 35 minPrincipal functioning gateway; humanitarian charter dependent.
- Armed conflictCriticalSource reliability A · confidence 2
Fresh RSF–SAF clashes reported in El Fasher
El Fasher, North Darfur, Sudan
Artillery exchanges and drone activity reported overnight. Humanitarian corridor status uncertain; NGO staff advised to hold movement.
Operational implication: review movement authorisations affecting El Fasher, North Darfur and confirm that journey plans account for armed conflict exposure.
Source: INGO ADVISORY conflict cell
Grading follows a NATO-style source reliability (A–F) and information confidence (1–5) framework. INGO ADVISORY has no NATO affiliation.
What happened
Sudan is currently assessed at critical overall risk. Active civil war between SAF and RSF since 2023. Widespread displacement; access to affected areas via humanitarian corridors only.
Why it matters
The rating shapes three practical things for organisations operating here: whether movement needs authorisation, how much lead time a journey plan requires, and what medical and evacuation cover has to be in place before anyone travels. Armed conflict dynamics continue to set the baseline for access and movement planning.
What happens next
Expect the current pattern to hold over the next 30 days absent a political trigger. The realistic worst case is a short, sharp deterioration around Khartoum rather than a sustained continental shift — plan for disruption measured in days, not weeks.
Operational implications
Journey management, vetted transport and a working check-in schedule carry more weight here than additional analysis. Where categories are rated High or above, treat movement as authorisation-based rather than notification-based.
Recommended actions
Refresh the country brief before any new deployment, confirm the in-country contact list is current, rehearse the escalation path with the response desk, and set explicit hold and withdrawal criteria in writing.
Principal drivers
- Armed conflict dynamics continue to set the baseline for access and movement planning.
- Attack intent against soft targets in urban centres remains the principal mass-casualty risk.
- Political contest — appointments, elections or transition disputes — is the most likely near-term trigger for unrest.
- Protest activity clusters around economic grievances and can close routes with little warning.
- Kidnap-for-ransom economics persist along peripheral corridors and require route-level controls.
- Security force redeployments or curfew announcements in the capital.
- Cross-border movement restrictions with neighbouring North Africa states.
- Airline schedule changes, insurance repricing or route suspensions.
- Fuel, cash or telecoms disruption sustained beyond 72 hours.
- Public statements setting dates for elections, verdicts or demobilisation.
Any two indicators firing inside the same week should prompt a review of movement authorisations and a refreshed country brief.
- Political environment
- Rated critical. Active civil war between SAF and RSF since 2023. Widespread displacement; access to affected areas via humanitarian corridors only.
- Security environment
- Security rated critical; terrorism high, conflict critical, crime critical.
- Operating environment
- Infrastructure rated high. Expect procurement, permitting and utility reliability to shape delivery timelines more than headline security.
- Travel environment
- Travel risk rated critical. 2 airport records held on the aviation board.
- Maritime
- Maritime security rated moderate across 1 port record.
- Border environment
- 8 land crossing records held, with status and operating considerations on the border board.
- Humanitarian access
- Access rated critical; health and medical environment rated critical.
- Outlook
- Active civil war
Personalised Sudan intelligence brief
Tailor the brief to your organisation and audience, then export to PDF or standalone HTML. Every export carries numbered citations for each source used and a stated limitations section. Download the citations appendix as CSV to analyse or reuse the underlying source records.
Sudan intelligence library
Category ratings
Extreme threat conditions. Movement should only occur under a full risk-managed programme with medical, security and evacuation cover pre-arranged and rehearsed.
Recent activity
Artillery exchanges and drone activity reported overnight. Humanitarian corridor status uncertain; NGO staff advised to hold movement.
Operating guidance
- Avoid predictable patterns of movement; vary routes and timings around government, security and diplomatic facilities.
- Hold movement to and within conflict-affected provinces; require pre-cleared journey management for any essential travel.
- Maintain a rolling political-event watchlist and set trigger-based hold and evacuation criteria in advance.
- All inbound personnel should complete a pre-travel security briefing and carry 24/7 duty-of-care contact protocols.
- Vet drivers, accommodation and local partners through in-country due diligence; refresh annually.
- Maintain a written crisis management plan aligned to INGO ADVISORY response playbooks; rehearse twice a year.
Intelligence library
The operating picture in Sudan
Sudan's civil war between the SAF and RSF has partitioned the country between two rival authorities and produced the region's largest displacement emergency, with famine conditions declared in parts of the west. International engagement now runs through two distinct access systems — Port Sudan in the east and cross-border routes from Chad and South Sudan into Darfur — each with its own permissions, risks and logistics. This is an active war zone: all planning assumptions require continuous re-validation.
Where organisations actually plan
De facto administrative and humanitarian hub under SAF control; drone strikes and security incidents have reached the city, and permissions govern all onward movement.
Devastated by fighting; contamination, lawlessness and infrastructure collapse make most of the capital area inaccessible.
RSF-dominated theatre with atrocity risk, siege conditions around El Fasher and famine; cross-border access from Chad is the principal humanitarian route.
Contested front line between the parties with shifting control and severe civilian impact.
Displacement corridors, arms and supply lines, and proxy dynamics that transmit the conflict regionally.
What shapes programme design
- Two rival authorities issue separate — and sometimes conflicting — permissions; engagement with one can prejudice access via the other.
- Front lines shift; route and location clearance has a short shelf life and must be re-verified continuously.
- Telecommunications are unreliable or absent across large areas; satellite communications face authorisation constraints.
- Detention risk for staff and partners is significant on both sides of the line.
- Banking collapse and cash scarcity constrain all payments and programme delivery.
What we monitor for deterioration
- Front-line movement in Kordofan and around El Fasher, including any change in siege conditions.
- Strike activity against Port Sudan and Red Sea infrastructure as a signal of external supply-line contestation.
- External sponsor involvement and proxy supply routes through Libya, Chad, South Sudan and Eritrea.
- Famine declarations and malnutrition data across Darfur and Kordofan.
- Any negotiation track — or its collapse — between SAF and RSF.
Free operational toolkit
Operational tools for Sudan teams
Six free operational tools for NGO and charity teams — no sign-up, nothing leaves your browser.
- Travel risk authorisationRisk-tiered approval form with control verification before movement is signed off.
- Vehicle & convoy check13-point pre-departure inspection with go / no-go clearance logic.
- Safeguarding / PSEA referralAnonymised referral log for PSEA and misconduct concerns.
- Cyber hygiene assessmentScored self-assessment producing a prioritised remediation workplan.
- Staff accountability roll callReal-time headcount and status tracking during an incident.
- Endurance calculatorContingency stock planning for water, food, fuel and cash.
In-country network, senior analysts and a delivery bar built for board-level scrutiny.