Published analysis
Research & Assessments
Independent country and regional security-risk research covering evidence, threats, indicators, confidence, limitations and operational implications across Africa.
Featured assessments
Egypt Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of economic adjustment, regional spillover from Sudan and Libya, and pressure around strategic transport infrastructure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Mali Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of JNIM and Islamic State activity, contested state reach and acute road, aviation and supply-chain exposure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Angola Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of oil-revenue dependence, cost-of-living pressure and uneven public-service capacity, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Eritrea Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of regional military tension, closed governance and limited independent visibility into domestic conditions, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Gulf of Guinea Maritime Security Outlook
Why suppressed piracy statistics understate residual risk, how kidnap economics work offshore, and what port-side theft and fraud cost operators in practice.
Q4 2026
54 reportsAlgeria Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of political controls, hydrocarbon-linked fiscal pressure and exposure along the Mali and Libya borders, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Angola Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of oil-revenue dependence, cost-of-living pressure and uneven public-service capacity, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Benin Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of armed-group pressure in northern border departments and exposure around the W-Arly-Pendjari complex, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Botswana Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of institutional continuity, mineral-sector concentration and water-security constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Burkina Faso Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of armed-group violence, territorial fragmentation and severe constraints on road access outside principal urban centres, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Burundi Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of eastern DRC spillover, political controls and pressure on cross-border movement and supply chains, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Cabo Verde Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of low conflict exposure, maritime dependence and sensitivity to imported fuel, food and transport disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Cameroon Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of the Anglophone conflict, Lake Chad Basin militancy and disruption on peripheral transport corridors, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Central African Republic Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of armed-group activity, limited state reach outside Bangui and dependence on negotiated overland access, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Chad Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of Sudan conflict spillover, refugee pressure, Sahel militancy and political succession risk, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Comoros Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of institutional fragility, import dependence and exposure to cyclone and maritime disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Congo (Brazzaville) Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of political continuity, oil-linked fiscal exposure and constrained public-service delivery, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Congo (DRC) Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of armed conflict in the east, mass displacement, disease exposure and contested regional diplomacy, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Côte d'Ivoire Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of northern-border militant spillover, electoral sensitivity and concentration of commercial activity around Abidjan, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Djibouti Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of Red Sea disruption, strategic-base competition and dependence on Ethiopia-linked trade corridors, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Egypt Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of economic adjustment, regional spillover from Sudan and Libya, and pressure around strategic transport infrastructure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Equatorial Guinea Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of succession uncertainty, hydrocarbon dependence and restricted political space, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Eritrea Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of regional military tension, closed governance and limited independent visibility into domestic conditions, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Eswatini Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of political controls, periodic protest risk and economic dependence on South African corridors, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Ethiopia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of armed violence in multiple regions, centre–periphery political tension and Sudan–Eritrea spillover, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Gabon Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of post-transition institutional consolidation, extractive-sector dependence and governance reform expectations, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Gambia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of institutional consolidation, transitional-justice pressures and dependence on tourism and cross-border trade, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Ghana Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of northern-border militant infiltration risk, fiscal pressure and localised communal tensions, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Guinea Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of transition politics, uncertainty around constitutional timelines and mining-corridor disruption risk, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Guinea-Bissau Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of institutional fragility, contested political authority and exposure to illicit trafficking networks, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Kenya Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of protest volatility, al-Shabaab cross-border intent, flood exposure and transport-corridor disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Lesotho Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of political fragility, economic dependence on South Africa and climate pressure on rural livelihoods, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Liberia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of economic fragility, infrastructure constraints and consolidation of post-election governance, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Libya Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of fragmented authority, militia competition, migration-route exposure and intermittent infrastructure shutdowns, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Madagascar Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of cyclone and drought exposure, weak infrastructure and recurrent political and social tension, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Malawi Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of foreign-exchange constraints, food-security pressure and climate-related disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Mali Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of JNIM and Islamic State activity, contested state reach and acute road, aviation and supply-chain exposure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Mauritania Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of Sahel spillover, migration-route pressure and security exposure along remote borders, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Mauritius Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of low conflict risk, maritime and cyber exposure, and sensitivity to external trade disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Morocco Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of Western Sahara diplomacy, cost-of-living pressures and concentration of logistics through strategic ports, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Mozambique Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of Cabo Delgado insurgency, LNG-related security requirements and cyclone exposure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Namibia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of institutional continuity, extractive-sector dependence and drought-related water constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Niger Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of junta consolidation, militant pressure and severe constraints on border and overland operations, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Nigeria Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, communal violence and infrastructure disruption across distinct theatres, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Rwanda Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of eastern DRC tensions, diplomatic exposure and heightened scrutiny of cross-border activity, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
São Tomé & Príncipe Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of small-state capacity constraints, import dependence and maritime-domain exposure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Senegal Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of fiscal adjustment, protest sensitivity and security spillover risk in the wider western Sahel, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Seychelles Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of maritime security, cyber exposure and high dependence on tourism and imported goods, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Sierra Leone Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of economic pressure, infrastructure constraints and episodic political unrest, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Somalia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of al-Shabaab attack capability, federal–member state friction, clan conflict and severe humanitarian access constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
South Africa Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of coalition fragility, violent crime, service-delivery unrest and logistics and power-system constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
South Sudan Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of fragile political arrangements, localised violence, Sudan spillover, flooding and acute humanitarian pressure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Sudan Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of the SAF–RSF war, mass displacement, famine risk and fragmentation of access and supply routes, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Tanzania Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of political controls, localised protest risk and climate-related transport disruption, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Togo Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of militant activity in the Savanes region, political pressure and northern access constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Tunisia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of economic fragility, political centralisation and migration-linked pressure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Uganda Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of election-cycle tension, ADF-linked regional exposure and involvement in eastern DRC security dynamics, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Zambia Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of debt-restructuring implementation, mining dependence, electricity constraints and drought exposure, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Zimbabwe Risk Outlook, Q4 2026
An evidence-led Q4 planning assessment of currency instability, political succession uncertainty and power and logistics constraints, with operational implications, warning indicators and source limitations clearly separated.
Q3 2026
20 reportsSudan Country Risk Brief
Operating-level brief on Sudan's conflict geography, access architecture and duty-of-care exposure for organisations working in or around the country.
Kenya Political Risk Assessment
Assessment of Kenya's political trajectory, protest dynamics, governance environment and the practical consequences for investors, NGOs and regional headquarters.
Horn of Africa Regional Risk Outlook
Twelve-month regional outlook covering inter-state dynamics, insurgency, Red Sea maritime security, climate stress and their combined effect on operations across the Horn.
East Africa Executive Travel Risk Brief
Practical travel risk guidance for executives and delegations across East Africa, covering pre-travel approval, ground movement, accommodation, medical planning and crisis response.
Ethiopia Country Risk Report
Regional-state read of Ethiopia's security environment, Amhara and Oromia insurgency, Tigray's unsettled transition, and what each means for staff movement and programme continuity.
Mozambique Country Risk Report
Cabo Delgado insurgency, post-election unrest and the security economics of the northern gas corridor, written for organisations with people and assets in-country.
Libya Country Risk Report
Militia balance in Tripoli, the eastern administration's consolidation and hydrocarbon use, an operating picture for organisations working across a divided state.
South Africa Country Risk Report
Crime-driven risk, service delivery unrest, extortion of construction and logistics, and infrastructure fragility, practical controls for corporate and NGO operations.
Mali Country Risk Report
JNIM's encirclement strategy, fuel and supply blockades, and the narrowing space for principled humanitarian operations in a transition-governed state.
Egypt Country Risk Report
A stable-but-strained environment: macroeconomic pressure, Sinai and border dynamics, Red Sea shipping effects and the regulatory conditions that shape NGO and corporate operations.
Sahel Regional Risk Outlook
One insurgent economy across five states: blockade tactics, the withdrawal of Western partners, and the measurable push towards Benin, Togo, Ghana and northern Côte d'Ivoire.
Gulf of Guinea Maritime Security Outlook
Why suppressed piracy statistics understate residual risk, how kidnap economics work offshore, and what port-side theft and fraud cost operators in practice.
Lake Chad Basin Regional Briefing
ISWAP and Boko Haram factional dynamics, the fragility of the multinational response, and access realities for humanitarian operations across four states.
Southern Africa Regional Risk Outlook
Election cycles, mining-sector politics, corridor logistics and the electricity and water constraints that increasingly define operational continuity across the region.
West Africa Executive Travel Brief
City-by-city travel guidance for Lagos, Abuja, Accra, Dakar and Abidjan, arrival risk, transport standards, accommodation criteria and the northern-belt lines that should not be crossed.
Southern Africa Executive Travel Brief
Practical travel controls for Johannesburg, Cape Town, Lusaka, Harare, Gaborone and Maputo, hijacking avoidance, route discipline, load-shedding effects and safe-arrival protocol.
North Africa Executive Travel Brief
Low-threat capitals with high-consequence rules: documentation, photography and drone restrictions, desert and border zones, and where the risk tier changes abruptly.
Cyber Threat Bulletin, Africa Q3
Quarterly read on ransomware pressure against African enterprises and public bodies, business email compromise economics, mobile money fraud and politically motivated intrusion.
Ransomware & Business Email Compromise in African Financial Services
How payment diversion and extortion actually work against banks, microfinance institutions, fintechs and mobile money operators, with the control set that measurably reduces loss.
NGO Cyber Duty of Care Brief
Protecting staff, beneficiaries and programme data in surveillance-exposed and conflict-affected environments, practical measures for organisations without a security engineering team.
Q2 2026
6 reportsSomalia Security Risk Assessment
In-depth review of the threat environment across Federal Somalia and Puntland, including clan dynamics, Al-Shabaab activity and coastal security.
East Africa Threat Briefing
Cross-border threat picture spanning Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Tanzania, with sectoral impact assessment.
Horn of Africa Intelligence Update
Political, security and humanitarian outlook covering Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti.
Nigeria Country Risk Report
Comprehensive assessment of security, political and operational risk for organisations operating across Nigeria.
Kenya Executive Travel Briefing
Nairobi and Mombasa travel security guidance including hotel, route and ground-support protocols.
Cyber Threat Bulletin, Africa Q2
Quarterly cyber threat picture across African markets with sector-specific mitigation guidance.
Q1 2026
2 reportsDRC Country Risk Report
Eastern DRC conflict dynamics and their impact on extractive and humanitarian operations.
Sahel Executive Travel Briefing
Executive travel guidance for Bamako, Niamey and Ouagadougou with journey management protocols.
Undated
2 reportsEast Africa Security & Humanitarian Operational Outlook
An evidence-led assessment of political violence, displacement pressure and continuity risks affecting operations across East Africa.
Horn of Africa Security & Humanitarian Operational Outlook
A sourced assessment of conflict trajectories, humanitarian access, Somalia's security transition and Red Sea operational exposure.