Africa Analysis

Sudan Country Risk Assessment: Two Authorities, One Emergency

Partitioned control, famine conditions and detention risk — how access, logistics and staff safety must be structured in Sudan's war economy.

By Mowlid Ali 22 Aug 2026 12 min Africa Analysis
Source

Originally reported by ACLED. INGO ADVISORY analysis is attributable to our intelligence desk; the underlying reporting remains the property of the publisher.

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Sudan is the largest displacement crisis in the world and the hardest operating environment in Africa. The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has partitioned the country into competing zones of control, each with its own approval regime, telecommunications reality and set of security threats.

The conflict geography that decides your access

Access is no longer a national question. Approval obtained in Port Sudan does not travel into RSF-held Darfur, and arrangements made in Nyala carry no weight in the east. Organisations that plan around a single country authorisation lose weeks; those that build parallel access tracks — with the political cost that carries — reach people.

  • Khartoum and the centre: contested ground, unexploded ordnance, destroyed services and criminal predation in vacated districts.
  • Darfur, particularly El Fasher and its surroundings: siege dynamics, ethnically targeted violence and famine-level food insecurity.
  • Kordofan: shifting front lines, supply-route interdiction and severe reporting gaps.
  • The east and Port Sudan: functioning but crowded, and exposed to drone strikes on port and airport infrastructure.

Threats to personnel and assets

Airstrikes and drone attacks now reach locations previously treated as rear areas. Aid convoys have been struck, looted and detained by both sides. Detention of national staff on suspicion of association with the other party is the most common serious incident type, and it is rarely resolved through formal channels.

The question in Sudan is not whether you can get authorisation. It is whether the person who granted it controls the road.

Humanitarian outlook

Famine conditions have been confirmed in multiple locations and the population in need exceeds any recent African precedent. Cross-border operations from Chad and cross-line movement from Port Sudan both remain necessary; neither is sufficient alone. Assume that a corridor open this month is a corridor negotiated again next month.

Operating implications

  • Run a dual-hub logistics model rather than a single national supply chain.
  • Pre-agree a detention response protocol, including who speaks to whom and what is never said on an open line.
  • Assume communications interruption as a planning baseline: satellite backup, offline data collection and a manual reporting fallback.
  • Vet every transport contractor for affiliation, and re-vet — ownership changes with front lines.
  • Cap international footprint and invest in remote management quality rather than presence for its own sake.
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