Maritime security across Africa's chokepoints

In the southern Red Sea, the dominant threat is stand-off: drones, anti-ship missiles and small-boat approaches directed at vessels perceived to have Israeli, US or UK affiliation. Ownership and charter structure matter more than hull hardening. Many operators continue to route via the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly ten to fourteen days and significant cost on Europe–Asia legs, with knock-on delays for humanitarian cargo into Djibouti, Port Sudan and Berbera.

The Gulf of Guinea threat is commercial and human: kidnap-for-ransom against crew, executed by pirate action groups operating 60–120 nautical miles off the Niger Delta. Nigerian naval patrols have pushed incidents further offshore rather than eliminating them, so offshore crew changes, seismic work and supply runs remain the exposure points.

Off Somalia the tempo is low but not zero. Pirate action groups retain the capability to hijack dhows and use them as motherships during favourable monsoon windows, which brings low-freeboard and unprotected vessels back into range. Coastal logistics into Bosaso, Mogadishu and Kismayo remain viable with hardened vessel selection and disciplined route planning.

Port-side risk is often underweighted. Congestion at Mombasa and Dar es Salaam concentrates high-value cargo in transit yards for longer, raising theft and diversion exposure on the Northern and Central corridors long after the vessel has sailed.