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Threat timeline

How Africa's active threats are evolving.

Each threat is tracked as a living dossier — milestones, situational updates, partner activity and analyst advisories in one chronological view.

6
Active threats
3
Critical
6
Regions covered
38
Documented events
Severity
Status
Region
CriticalEscalating·Civil War / Humanitarian

Sudan — RSF/SAF conflict and Darfur humanitarian collapse

Ongoing RSF-SAF conflict has produced the world's largest displacement crisis, with over 12M displaced internally and cross-border and famine confirmed in five Darfur localities.

Northeast Africa · Horn · Sudan, Chad, South Sudan, EgyptOpened Aug 1, 2025 · Updated May 20, 20266 partners engagedOpen timeline
CriticalEscalating·Terrorism / Insurgency

JNIM expansion across the central Sahel

Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has widened operational reach from northern Mali into coastal Benin and Togo, exploiting the withdrawal of external partners and fragile transitional governments.

West Africa · Sahel · Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, BeninOpened Nov 4, 2025 · Updated May 18, 20265 partners engagedOpen timeline
HighActive·Cyber / Financial Infrastructure

State-linked cyber operations against African financial infrastructure

Coordinated intrusion campaigns targeting central bank payment rails and telco operators across four major African economies. Attribution pending; techniques consistent with state-linked APT activity.

Pan-African · Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, EgyptOpened Dec 10, 2025 · Updated May 15, 20263 partners engagedOpen timeline
HighActive·Maritime / Geopolitical

Red Sea shipping disruption & Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint

Houthi-linked missile and USV attacks on commercial shipping continue to reshape traffic through Bab-el-Mandeb, driving up insurance premiums and rerouting African trade around the Cape.

Horn of Africa · Red Sea · Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, SudanOpened Oct 12, 2025 · Updated May 14, 20264 partners engagedOpen timeline
CriticalActive·Conflict / Displacement

Eastern DRC — M23 offensive and North Kivu displacement

M23 advances in North Kivu have displaced 1.9M civilians and drawn in regional forces from SADC and the East African Community, creating one of the largest active humanitarian corridors on the continent.

Central Africa · Great Lakes · DR Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, BurundiOpened Sep 18, 2025 · Updated May 10, 20265 partners engagedOpen timeline
HighMonitoring·Insurgency / Energy Security

Cabo Delgado insurgency & LNG operations posture

Ansar al-Sunna (ASWJ) activity resurges around the Afungi peninsula as SAMIM drawdown continues and TotalEnergies reviews the timeline for LNG project restart.

Southern Africa · Mozambique, TanzaniaOpened Jul 12, 2025 · Updated May 5, 20264 partners engagedOpen timeline