Africa Risk Monitor
Africa risk intelligence — continent-wide coverage
Continuous threat monitoring and intelligence analysis across Africa's highest-risk operating environments, drawn from ACLED, ReliefWeb, International Crisis Group, UN situation reports, government travel advisories, maritime security reporting and OSINT.
Monthly Africa Risk Brief
One-click PDF: executive summary, threat matrix, and country notes.
| Country | Risk level | Main threats | Update | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria North Africa | Moderate | Incident | Weekly | ACLED, OSINT |
| Angola Southern Africa | Moderate | IncidentBriefing | Weekly | FCDO, OSINT |
| Benin West Africa | Moderate | Incident | Weekly | ACLED, ICG |
| Burkina Faso Sahel | High | IncidentBriefing | Weekly | ACLED, ReliefWeb, ICG |
| Burundi East Africa | High | Incident | Weekly | ICG |
| Cameroon Central Africa | High | IncidentBriefingClimate | Weekly | ACLED, ICG, OSINT |
| Central African Republic Central Africa | Critical | IncidentBriefingMaritimeClimate | Weekly | ACLED, UN, ICG |
| Chad Sahel | High | IncidentBriefingEnvironmentalClimate | Weekly | ACLED, ReliefWeb, ICG |
| DR Congo Central Africa | Critical | IncidentBriefingEnvironmentalClimate | Weekly | ACLED, ReliefWeb, ICG, UN |
| Djibouti Horn of Africa | Moderate | IncidentBriefing | Weekly | Maritime, OSINT |
| Egypt North Africa | High | IncidentMaritimeEnvironmental | Weekly | ACLED, FCDO, OSINT |
| Niger Sahel | Critical | IncidentInsightEnvironmental | Weekly | ACLED, ICG, UN |
| Equatorial Guinea Central Africa | Moderate | Political repression | Weekly | OSINT |
| Eritrea Horn of Africa | High | BriefingIncident | Weekly | ICG, OSINT |
| Eswatini Southern Africa | Moderate | IncidentEnvironmental | Weekly | OSINT |
| Ethiopia Horn of Africa | High | IncidentEnvironmentalBriefing | Weekly | ACLED, ReliefWeb, ICG, UN |
| Gabon Central Africa | Moderate | Political transition | Weekly | ICG, OSINT |
| Ghana West Africa | Moderate | IncidentInsightEnvironmental | Weekly | FCDO |
| Guinea-Bissau West Africa | Moderate | PoliticalNarcotics | Weekly | ICG |
| Ivory Coast West Africa | Moderate | IncidentBriefing | Weekly | ACLED, ICG |
| Kenya East Africa | High | IncidentInsightClimate | Weekly | ACLED, FCDO, ICG, OSINT |
| Liberia West Africa | Moderate | Briefing | Weekly | FCDO |
| Libya North Africa | Moderate | Incident | Weekly | ACLED, ICG, OSINT |
| Mauritania West Africa | Moderate | Briefing | Weekly | ACLED, ICG |
| Nigeria West Africa | High | IncidentInsightEnvironmental | Weekly | ACLED, FCDO, ICG, OSINT |
| Sudan North-East Africa | Critical | IncidentBriefingEnvironmental | Weekly | ACLED, ReliefWeb, UN, ICG |
| Senegal West Africa | Moderate | Incident | Weekly | ICG, FCDO |
| South Africa Southern Africa | Moderate | IncidentBriefingInsightEnvironmental | Weekly | FCDO, OSINT |
| Togo West Africa | Moderate | Incident | Weekly | ACLED, ICG |
| Tunisia North Africa | Moderate | IncidentEnvironmental | Weekly | ICG, FCDO |
| Zimbabwe Southern Africa | Moderate | IncidentBriefing | Weekly | ICG, OSINT |
| Botswana Southern Africa | Low | Environmental | Weekly | FCDO |
| Gambia West Africa | Low | IncidentEnvironmental | Weekly | FCDO |
| Guinea West Africa | Low | BriefingIncident | Weekly | ICG |
| Lesotho Southern Africa | Low | IncidentEnvironmentalBriefing | Weekly | OSINT |
| Madagascar Indian Ocean | High | IncidentBriefing | Weekly | OSINT |
| Malawi Southern Africa | Low | IncidentEnvironmental | Weekly | ReliefWeb |
| Mali Sahel | High | IncidentBriefingInsight | Weekly | ACLED, ICG, UN |
| Mauritius Indian Ocean | Low | Petty crime | Weekly | FCDO |
| Morocco North Africa | High | IncidentEnvironmental | Weekly | FCDO, OSINT |
| Mozambique Southern Africa | High | IncidentBriefing | Weekly | ACLED, ICG, OSINT |
| South Sudan East Africa | Critical | IncidentBriefingEnvironmental | Weekly | ACLED, ReliefWeb, UN |
| Namibia Southern Africa | Low | Incident | Weekly | FCDO |
| Republic of Congo Central Africa | Low | IncidentBriefingClimate | Weekly | OSINT, FCDO |
| Rwanda East Africa | Low | IncidentBriefing | Weekly | ICG, OSINT |
| Sierra Leone West Africa | Low | IncidentBriefingEnvironmental | Weekly | FCDO |
| Somalia Horn of Africa | High | IncidentBriefing | Weekly | ACLED, ReliefWeb, ICG, UN, Maritime, OSINT |
| Tanzania East Africa | Low | BriefingIncidentEnvironmentalClimate | Weekly | FCDO |
| Uganda East Africa | High | IncidentEnvironmentalBriefingClimate | Weekly | ACLED, FCDO |
| Zambia Southern Africa | Low | IncidentBriefingEnvironmental | Weekly | FCDO |
Ratings are advisory and reviewed weekly. For operational decisions, request a bespoke briefing via the contact page.
Security risk matrix · Likelihood × Impact
Country risk positioning
Principal country-level risk factors plotted on a five-by-five likelihood and impact matrix. Select a plotted factor to read the analyst assessment behind its position.
Impact
| Catastrophic | Low | Moderate | High | Critical | Critical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major | Low | Moderate | High | High | Critical |
| Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | High | High |
| Minor | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| Negligible | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| Likelihood | Rare | Unlikely | Possible | Likely | Almost Certain |
Likelihood
Hover, focus or select a plotted point to see the analyst assessment behind its position.
Indicative risk positioning — analyst-assessed, not a predictive model.
Border Crossings Watch
Illustrative dashboard — example data only
Land border crossing status board
Movement-planning view of 86 major land crossings across the continent — from the Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia corridors to the Sahel, Maghreb, Gulf of Guinea and Southern African freight routes.
Illustrative Border Crossings Watch — example data only, not a live border-status feed. The relative update times shown are illustrative placeholders, not observed timestamps.
86 / 86 crossings
| Crossing | Countries connected | Region | Status | Last updated (illustrative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dhobley – LiboiSecurity screening and intermittent closures. | Somalia ↔ Kenya | Horn of Africa | Restricted | ~27h ago (example) |
| Bulahawo – ManderaCross-border movement subject to escort requirements. | Somalia ↔ Kenya | Horn of Africa | Restricted | ~20h ago (example) |
| Tog WajaalePrimary Berbera-corridor freight crossing. | Somaliland ↔ Ethiopia | Horn of Africa | Open | ~24h ago (example) |
| MoyaleOne-stop post; periodic inter-communal disruption. | Kenya ↔ Ethiopia | Horn of Africa | Open | ~21h ago (example) |
| FerferStatus not corroborated in this sample dataset. | Somalia ↔ Ethiopia | Horn of Africa | Unconfirmed | ~23h ago (example) |
| GalafiPrincipal Ethiopian import artery; heavy truck queues. | Djibouti ↔ Ethiopia | Horn of Africa | Open | ~30h ago (example) |
| LoyadaLight traffic; documentation checks routine. | Djibouti ↔ Somaliland | Horn of Africa | Open | ~27h ago (example) |
| Metema – GallabatConflict-affected; movement subject to authority control. | Ethiopia ↔ Sudan | Horn of Africa | Restricted | ~4h ago (example) |
| Nakfa / ZalambessaReopened briefly post-2018; closed again in practice. | Eritrea ↔ Ethiopia | Horn of Africa | Closed | ~13h ago (example) |
| BusiaHigh-volume Northern Corridor freight point. | Kenya ↔ Uganda | East Africa | Open | ~8h ago (example) |
| MalabaBusiest East African crossing; clearance backlogs at peak. | Kenya ↔ Uganda | East Africa | Open | ~23h ago (example) |
| Gatuna / KatunaReopened 2022; political sensitivity persists. | Rwanda ↔ Uganda | East Africa | Open | ~23h ago (example) |
| RusumoCentral Corridor one-stop post. | Rwanda ↔ Tanzania | East Africa | Open | ~10h ago (example) |
| La Corniche (Goma – Gisenyi)Conflict-driven closures; verify before any movement. | DRC ↔ Rwanda | East Africa | Restricted | ~22h ago (example) |
| BunaganaUnder armed-group control; no legitimate movement. | DRC ↔ Uganda | East Africa | Closed | ~11h ago (example) |
| NimuleJuba's main supply artery; convoy escort commonly used. | South Sudan ↔ Uganda | East Africa | Open | ~10h ago (example) |
| NamangaOne-stop post; routine. | Kenya ↔ Tanzania | East Africa | Open | ~4h ago (example) |
| BeitbridgeExtended processing queues at peak. | South Africa ↔ Zimbabwe | Southern Africa | Open | ~15h ago (example) |
| Lebombo – Ressano GarciaMaputo corridor; periodic unrest-driven delays. | South Africa ↔ Mozambique | Southern Africa | Open | ~2h ago (example) |
| KazungulaBridge replaced ferry; transit times much improved. | Botswana ↔ Zambia | Southern Africa | Open | ~26h ago (example) |
| ChirunduNorth-South Corridor one-stop post. | Zambia ↔ Zimbabwe | Southern Africa | Open | ~7h ago (example) |
| KasumbalesaCopperbelt export point; multi-day truck queues typical. | DRC ↔ Zambia | Southern Africa | Open | ~5h ago (example) |
| Oshikango – Santa ClaraRegional trade point; documentation checks thorough. | Namibia ↔ Angola | Southern Africa | Open | ~20h ago (example) |
| Maseru BridgeCommuter volumes peak morning and evening. | Lesotho ↔ South Africa | Southern Africa | Open | ~13h ago (example) |
| Mwanza – MchinjiNacala and Beira corridor feeder routes. | Malawi ↔ Mozambique/Zambia | Southern Africa | Open | ~26h ago (example) |
| Seme – KrakeECOWAS artery; informal fees a recurring compliance issue. | Nigeria ↔ Benin | West Africa | Open | ~12h ago (example) |
| AflaoDense pedestrian and trade movement. | Ghana ↔ Togo | West Africa | Open | ~21h ago (example) |
| Noépé / Sanvee CondjiCoastal corridor freight. | Togo ↔ Benin | West Africa | Open | ~14h ago (example) |
| MalanvillePolitically constrained since 2023; verify current policy. | Benin ↔ Niger | West Africa | Restricted | ~19h ago (example) |
| KantchariJihadist ambush corridor; avoid for civilian movement. | Burkina Faso ↔ Niger | West Africa | Restricted | ~12h ago (example) |
| HérémakonoRoute insecurity dominates; escorted movement only. | Mali ↔ Burkina Faso | West Africa | Restricted | ~11h ago (example) |
| Diboli – KidiraBamako's principal seaport corridor to Dakar. | Mali ↔ Senegal | West Africa | Open | ~26h ago (example) |
| Noé – EluboCoastal highway crossing; routine. | Côte d'Ivoire ↔ Ghana | West Africa | Open | ~4h ago (example) |
| RossoNew bridge easing historic ferry delays. | Mauritania ↔ Senegal | West Africa | Open | ~6h ago (example) |
| Kousséri – N'DjamenaChad's lifeline crossing; Boko Haram overlay to the north. | Cameroon ↔ Chad | Central Africa | Open | ~13h ago (example) |
| Garoua-BoulaïArmed-group interdiction risk on the Bangui highway. | Cameroon ↔ CAR | Central Africa | Restricted | ~26h ago (example) |
| Brazzaville – Kinshasa (Beach)River crossing; documentation scrutiny high both sides. | Congo ↔ DRC | Central Africa | Open | ~20h ago (example) |
| AdréPrimary humanitarian access point into Darfur. | Chad ↔ Sudan | Central Africa | Restricted | ~23h ago (example) |
| Bitam / EboroForest-corridor freight; slow processing. | Gabon ↔ Cameroon | Central Africa | Open | ~12h ago (example) |
| Ras JedirRecurrent militia-driven closures. | Tunisia ↔ Libya | North Africa | Restricted | ~14h ago (example) |
| SalloumTight security controls; commercial traffic prioritised. | Egypt ↔ Libya | North Africa | Restricted | ~22h ago (example) |
| Argoub el-Ehmar / GuergueratOnly land route down the Atlantic coast; disputed-territory transit. | Morocco ↔ Mauritania | North Africa | Open | ~10h ago (example) |
| RafahIncluded as a movement-planning illustration only. | Egypt ↔ Gaza | North Africa | Closed | ~19h ago (example) |
| KaribaDam-wall crossing; light vehicle traffic only. | Zambia ↔ Zimbabwe | Southern Africa | Open | ~16h ago (example) |
| Victoria FallsTourist crossing; straightforward processing. | Zimbabwe ↔ Zambia | Southern Africa | Open | ~25h ago (example) |
| Plumtree – RamokgwebanaBulawayo–Francistown corridor. | Zimbabwe ↔ Botswana | Southern Africa | Open | ~28h ago (example) |
| Nakonde – TundumaTAZARA corridor; among Africa's longest truck queues. | Zambia ↔ Tanzania | Southern Africa | Open | ~14h ago (example) |
| DedzaLilongwe–Tete route. | Malawi ↔ Mozambique | Southern Africa | Open | ~16h ago (example) |
| Zobue – TeteBeira corridor feeder; bridge bottleneck at Tete. | Mozambique ↔ Malawi | Southern Africa | Open | ~9h ago (example) |
| NgomaChobe route; wildlife-related night restrictions. | Botswana ↔ Namibia | Southern Africa | Open | ~10h ago (example) |
| Trans-Kalahari (Mamuno)Walvis Bay corridor freight. | Botswana ↔ Namibia | Southern Africa | Open | ~25h ago (example) |
| Golela / LavumisaMain southern crossing into Eswatini. | Eswatini ↔ South Africa | Southern Africa | Open | ~8h ago (example) |
| Caia / MilangeZambezi valley routes; flood-season closures. | Mozambique ↔ Malawi | Southern Africa | Open | ~3h ago (example) |
| Elegu – NimuleOne-stop post; cargo dominance. | Uganda ↔ South Sudan | East Africa | Open | ~15h ago (example) |
| MutukulaCentral Corridor alternative to Malaba. | Uganda ↔ Tanzania | East Africa | Open | ~24h ago (example) |
| Kabanga – KoberoBujumbura's main import route. | Tanzania ↔ Burundi | East Africa | Open | ~11h ago (example) |
| Kavimvira (Uvira)Security-dependent; verify locally each movement. | DRC ↔ Burundi | East Africa | Restricted | ~22h ago (example) |
| KasindiNorth Kivu ambush risk on the Beni axis. | DRC ↔ Uganda | East Africa | Restricted | ~21h ago (example) |
| Isebania – SirariLake Victoria basin trade route. | Kenya ↔ Tanzania | East Africa | Open | ~21h ago (example) |
| Taveta – HoliliSecondary crossing; light volumes. | Kenya ↔ Tanzania | East Africa | Open | ~2h ago (example) |
| NadapalTurkana corridor; banditry and cattle-raid exposure. | Kenya ↔ South Sudan | East Africa | Restricted | ~16h ago (example) |
| PagaTema–Ouagadougou corridor; the safest Sahel-bound artery. | Ghana ↔ Burkina Faso | West Africa | Open | ~19h ago (example) |
| Ouangolodougou – NiangolokoNorthern approach roads exposed to armed groups. | Côte d'Ivoire ↔ Burkina Faso | West Africa | Restricted | ~16h ago (example) |
| Zegoua – PogoAbidjan corridor; Bamako's key import route. | Mali ↔ Côte d'Ivoire | West Africa | Open | ~27h ago (example) |
| KouremaleConakry corridor; slow but generally usable. | Mali ↔ Guinea | West Africa | Open | ~4h ago (example) |
| MoussalaSouthern Dakar-corridor alternative. | Senegal ↔ Mali | West Africa | Open | ~23h ago (example) |
| Gaya – MalanvillePolicy-dependent; commercial traffic intermittently blocked. | Niger ↔ Benin | West Africa | Restricted | ~9h ago (example) |
| Illela – Birnin KonniReopened but security-screened; banditry on approach roads. | Nigeria ↔ Niger | West Africa | Restricted | ~22h ago (example) |
| JibiyaKidnap-for-ransom belt; avoid civilian road movement. | Nigeria ↔ Niger | West Africa | Restricted | ~24h ago (example) |
| Banjul – KarangTrans-Gambia bridge removed the ferry bottleneck. | Gambia ↔ Senegal | West Africa | Open | ~29h ago (example) |
| São DomingosCasamance corridor; low-level insurgency history. | Guinea-Bissau ↔ Senegal | West Africa | Open | ~11h ago (example) |
| Bo WatersideCoastal highway; poor road condition in rains. | Liberia ↔ Sierra Leone | West Africa | Open | ~5h ago (example) |
| Ganta – GuineaNimba mining corridor. | Liberia ↔ Guinea | West Africa | Open | ~15h ago (example) |
| Kye-OssiTri-border point; Equatorial Guinea entry tightly controlled. | Cameroon ↔ Equatorial Guinea/Gabon | Central Africa | Restricted | ~20h ago (example) |
| Bangui – ZongoRiver crossing; humanitarian movement dominant. | CAR ↔ DRC | Central Africa | Restricted | ~20h ago (example) |
| Kasumbalesa (Sakania)Secondary Copperbelt route. | DRC ↔ Zambia | Central Africa | Open | ~28h ago (example) |
| Bol / Baga SolaLake Chad basin; Boko Haram/ISWAP interdiction risk. | Chad ↔ Nigeria/Niger | Central Africa | Restricted | ~9h ago (example) |
| Am Dam – Sudan routesSecondary Darfur access; armed-actor dependent. | Chad ↔ Sudan | Central Africa | Restricted | ~30h ago (example) |
| Ouesso – SouankéForest corridor; long unpaved sections. | Congo ↔ Cameroon | Central Africa | Open | ~2h ago (example) |
| Debdeb / In AmenasLong-standing military closure of the desert frontier. | Algeria ↔ Libya | North Africa | Closed | ~15h ago (example) |
| Bou Chebka / KasserineReopened; security screening for jihadist movement. | Tunisia ↔ Algeria | North Africa | Open | ~16h ago (example) |
| In GuezzamTrans-Saharan route; migrant-smuggling enforcement. | Algeria ↔ Niger | North Africa | Restricted | ~27h ago (example) |
| TinzaouatenContested northern-Mali frontier; no legitimate movement. | Algeria ↔ Mali | North Africa | Closed | ~2h ago (example) |
| Argoub / Bir GandouzOnly paved Atlantic land route; disputed-territory transit. | Western Sahara ↔ Mauritania | North Africa | Open | ~7h ago (example) |
| Aswan – Wadi Halfa (ferry/road)Displacement outflow; multi-day processing common. | Egypt ↔ Sudan | North Africa | Restricted | ~9h ago (example) |
| Wadi Halfa – QustulPrincipal exit route for displaced civilians; long processing. | Sudan ↔ Egypt | North Africa | Restricted | ~17h ago (example) |
Open (in view)
0
Restricted (in view)
0
Closed (in view)
0
Unconfirmed (in view)
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