Security & Conflict
Terrorism, insurgency and armed-conflict analysis across Africa's highest-risk theatres, tracking actors, tactics and their operational consequences.
19 articles
Dilemma 05 — Drone Warfare: Armed UAV Proliferation Across African Conflicts
Cheap airframes have moved the threat from the frontline to the compound, the airstrip and the convoy. Static site security assumptions no longer hold.
Dilemma 09 — The Sahel: Jihadist Expansion Toward Coastal West Africa
Fuel interdiction, blockaded towns and littoral spillover are changing the risk profile of markets previously treated as stable.
Al-Shabaab After the Troop Drawdown: Is Somalia Entering a New Security Phase?
What the drawdown of foreign forces changes about Al-Shabaab's freedom of movement, targeting and financing — and what it means for organisations in Somalia.
The $50 Million Ransom That Helped Fuel al-Qaeda's Sahel Offensive
How large ransom settlements convert hostage-taking into strategic capability for JNIM and its affiliates across the Sahel.
Africa's New Kidnap Economy: How Ransom Payments Are Financing Terrorism
Kidnap-for-ransom as a continental financing system — pricing, brokers, exposure profiles and the controls that actually work.
The Sahel's Security Collapse: What Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger Mean for West Africa
Junta consolidation, insurgent expansion and the transmission of Sahel violence into coastal West Africa.
Terrorist Financing in Africa: Gold, Kidnapping, Smuggling and Informal Economies
Artisanal gold, livestock taxation, fuel smuggling and ransom — how armed groups fund themselves and where compliance exposure sits.
Climate + Conflict + Displacement: Africa's Emerging Compound Security Threat
Where climate shocks, armed conflict and displacement compound each other — and why single-lens risk assessment keeps missing it.
Africa's Intelligence Gap: Why Early Warning Is Failing Before Crises Escalate
Warning exists; action does not. The structural reasons early warning fails in Africa and how to build a desk that works.
The Sahel's Security Crisis Is Changing — What It Means for Organisations Operating in West Africa
From the tri-border area to coastal West Africa: how Sahel violence transmits into road risk, kidnap, supply chains and insurance.
Africa's Borderlands: Why Ungoverned Spaces Drive the Continent's Fastest-Growing Risks
From the Sahel tri-border area to the Kenya–Somalia frontier, why cross-border zones generate Africa's sharpest risk trends.
Kidnapping for Ransom Is Becoming a Strategic Financing Threat in the Sahel
Ransom economics, exposure profiles, hotspots and the crisis-management controls that actually work.
How NGOs Should Build a Security Risk Assessment for Operations in Africa
A ten-step methodology from threat identification to residual-risk acceptance, review triggers and monitoring.
What Does “Critical Risk” Actually Mean? A Guide for Organisations Operating in Africa
How our Critical, High, Moderate and Low ratings are built — and what management action each level should trigger.
Al-Shabaab in 2026: Evolution of an Adaptive Insurgency
How Al-Shabaab has shifted tactics, financing and targeting — and what that means for NGO, corporate and government operations across the Horn.
Entering Africa: Five Security Questions Investors Must Answer First
The five questions every investor should answer before committing capital to an African market — and the risks of skipping them.
Why Country Risk Assessments Fail in African Markets
The methodological blind spots behind country risk products that don't survive contact with the operating environment.
Al-Shabaab's Operational Shift and What It Means for Business
A tactical and strategic review of Al-Shabaab operations and their implications for organisations across the Horn of Africa.
The Intelligence Cycle: A Primer for Security Leaders
How the classical intelligence cycle applies inside corporate security teams — and where it typically breaks down.