Executive summary
The Horn remains exposed to simultaneous conflict systems: Sudan’s multi-front war, Ethiopian political-security tensions, Somalia’s prolonged contest with Al-Shabaab and reversible maritime insecurity.
These theatres are operationally connected through displacement, corridors, mission financing and regional bargaining. Overall confidence is MODERATE.
Sources · [8] Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa) · [11] International Crisis Group
Full report
CONFIRMED
OCHA[3] and ReliefWeb reporting confirms continuing conflict, displacement, food insecurity and funding constraints. FEWS NET[5] identifies Emergency outcomes and famine risk in parts of Darfur and Kordofan. International Crisis Group[11] documents Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and unresolved Tigray arrangements. US MARAD[14] advisory 2026-006 records residual maritime risk across the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Somali Basin.
Sources · [13] International Crisis Group · [16] IOM DTM
REPORTED
Somali and regional outlets report changing control in parts of central Somalia. Analysts describe possible Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation. Restricted access, propaganda and changing front lines mean these claims remain attributed unless independently corroborated.
Sources · [14] US MARAD · [17] INSO
ASSESSED
Sudan’s conflict is likely to remain protracted. Gaps between AUSSOM transition plans, financing and Somali force capacity are likely to create local opportunities for Al-Shabaab. A wider Ethiopia–Eritrea conflict is credible but open sources do not establish timing or firm intent.
Sources · [10] FEWS NET / ReliefWeb · [13] International Crisis Group
Operational implications
Maintain district-level access plans; review hibernation and evacuation triggers in northern Ethiopia; preserve alternative supply routes; and verify maritime movement against current official advisories.
Sources · [8] Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa) · [11] International Crisis Group
Indicators to monitor
Confirmed force movement in northern Ethiopia; AUSSOM funding; corroborated Al-Shabaab territorial changes; Sudan negotiations; and new MARAD[14], UKMTO[15] or EUNAVFOR warnings.
Sources · [11] International Crisis Group · [14] US MARAD
Outlook
Most likely through March 2027: continued Sudan conflict, a contested Somalia equilibrium, unresolved Ethiopian tensions and heightened maritime monitoring.
Sources · [4] GDACS · [7] GDELT Project
Confidence assessment
MODERATE. Multiple credible sources support the broad trajectory, while access constraints and opaque decision-making limit precision.
Sources · [8] Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa) · [11] International Crisis Group
Key findings
- Sudan’s war continues to create severe access and food-security consequences.
- Somalia remains shaped by Al-Shabaab capability, federal disputes and AUSSOM transition conditions.
- Ethiopia–Tigray–Eritrea tensions remain a high-consequence escalation risk.
- Red Sea and Gulf of Aden risk remains reversible at short notice.
Analyst assessment
ASSESSED — HIGH CONFIDENCE: Sudan will remain a protracted humanitarian emergency.
ASSESSED — MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE: Somalia is likely to remain in a contested equilibrium.
ASSESSED — MODERATE CONFIDENCE: Red Sea shipping risk can deteriorate rapidly.
Limitation: actor intent and changing front lines are difficult to verify in open sources.
Related reports
Footnotes & sources
- [1] ACLED — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data — Africa event recordsL1 Conflict · reliability A
- [2] UCDP — Uppsala Conflict Data Program — organised violence datasetL1 Conflict · reliability A
- [3] UN OCHA / ReliefWeb — Situation reports, access snapshots and humanitarian updatesL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [4] GDACS — Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System alertsL2 Early warning · reliability B
- [5] FEWS NET — Food security outlooks and alertsL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [6] NASA FIRMS / Copernicus — Active fire detections and open satellite imagery for corroborationL3 GEOINT · reliability B
- [7] GDELT Project — Global media event and tone monitoringL5 Strategic · reliability C
- [8] Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa) — Regional political and security analysisL5 Strategic · reliability B
- [9] INGO ADVISORY analyst desk — Practitioner interviews, field reporting and imagery verificationL6 Verification · reliability B
- [10] FEWS NET / ReliefWeb — Sudan: Emergency and risk of Famine persist, May–September 2026L2 Early warning · reliability A
- [11] International Crisis Group — Ethiopia and Eritrea Slide Closer to War amid Tigray UpheavalL5 Strategic · reliability B
- [12] International Crisis Group — Helping Somalia Move Beyond a Shaky Status QuoL5 Strategic · reliability B
- [13] International Crisis Group — Security Council Misses Funding Deadline for AU Mission in SomaliaL5 Strategic · reliability B
- [14] US MARAD — Advisory 2026-006 — Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Somali BasinL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [15] UKMTO — Maritime incident advisories — Gulf of Aden and Red Sea approachesL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [16] IOM DTM — Displacement Tracking Matrix — movement and displacement flowsL2 Early warning · reliability A
- [17] INSO — NGO safety incident reporting and access advisoriesL1 Conflict · reliability A
Supporting capability statement
Horn of Africa security capability pack
Download the experience summary, applied risk frameworks and sample operational brief supporting this country threat assessment.
Free operational toolkit
Act on this assessment
Six free operational tools for NGO and charity teams — no sign-up, nothing leaves your browser.
- Travel risk authorisationRisk-tiered approval form with control verification before movement is signed off.
- Vehicle & convoy check13-point pre-departure inspection with go / no-go clearance logic.
- Safeguarding / PSEA referralAnonymised referral log for PSEA and misconduct concerns.
- Cyber hygiene assessmentScored self-assessment producing a prioritised remediation workplan.
- Staff accountability roll callReal-time headcount and status tracking during an incident.
- Endurance calculatorContingency stock planning for water, food, fuel and cash.