Uganda
Kampala broadly permissive; ADF activity spills across the DRC border. Regional Ebola/Marburg outbreaks periodically constrain travel.
- Overall risk
- Moderate
- Risk trend
- Stable
- Confidence
- High
- Last reviewed
- 15 September 2026
- Intelligence coverage
- Active
- Political instabilityModerate
- TerrorismHigh
- Conflict zonesModerate
- Violent & organised crimeModerate
- Civil unrest & protestModerate
- Kidnap & ransomModerate
- Travel riskModerate
- Infrastructure & powerModerate
| Category | Current risk | Trend | Change | Confidence | Reviewed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall risk | Moderate | improving | -2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Political instability | Moderate | improving | -2 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Terrorism | High | improving | -1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Conflict zones | Moderate | stable | 0 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Violent & organised crime | Moderate | stable | 0 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Civil unrest & protest | Moderate | improving | -1 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Kidnap & ransom | Moderate | improving | -2 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Travel risk | Moderate | improving | -2 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Infrastructure & power | Moderate | improving | -2 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Health & medical | Moderate | improving | -2 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Maritime security | Low | improving | -2 | low | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Cyber threats | Moderate | improving | -2 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Humanitarian access | Moderate | improving | -1 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Climate & natural hazard | Moderate | stable | 0 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Disinformation & influence ops | Moderate | stable | 0 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
Direction and change reflect movement in recorded incident tempo against the previous assessment block. Confidence reflects the density of corroborated reporting held for that category, not the severity of the rating.
| Minor | Moderate | Serious | Major | Severe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain | |||||
| Likely | |||||
| Possible | |||||
| Unlikely | |||||
| Rare |
Select a category chip to see how its placement was reached.
Highlighted bars are the most recent four weeks — the window the desk uses for tempo comparison.
- Cyber1
- Moderate1
- EBB · Entebbe IntlEntebbe · average delay 10 minStable; 40km transfer to Kampala is the planning variable.
- CyberModerateSource reliability A · confidence 2
Credential-harvesting campaign targets INGO sector
Regional, Uganda
Spear-phishing lures impersonating donor agencies observed against three INGOs. Advisory pushed with IOCs and mitigation steps.
Operational implication: review movement authorisations affecting Regional and confirm that journey plans account for cyber exposure.
Source: INGO ADVISORY cyber TI
Grading follows a NATO-style source reliability (A–F) and information confidence (1–5) framework. INGO ADVISORY has no NATO affiliation.
What happened
Uganda is currently assessed at moderate overall risk. Kampala broadly permissive; ADF activity spills across the DRC border. Regional Ebola/Marburg outbreaks periodically constrain travel.
Why it matters
The rating shapes three practical things for organisations operating here: whether movement needs authorisation, how much lead time a journey plan requires, and what medical and evacuation cover has to be in place before anyone travels. Attack intent against soft targets in urban centres remains the principal mass-casualty risk.
What happens next
Expect the current pattern to hold over the next 30 days absent a political trigger. The realistic worst case is a short, sharp deterioration around Kampala rather than a sustained continental shift — plan for disruption measured in days, not weeks.
Operational implications
Journey management, vetted transport and a working check-in schedule carry more weight here than additional analysis. Where categories are rated High or above, treat movement as authorisation-based rather than notification-based.
Recommended actions
Refresh the country brief before any new deployment, confirm the in-country contact list is current, rehearse the escalation path with the response desk, and set explicit hold and withdrawal criteria in writing.
Principal drivers
- Attack intent against soft targets in urban centres remains the principal mass-casualty risk.
- No single dominant driver: risk is diffuse and best managed through routine briefing and journey discipline.
- Security force redeployments or curfew announcements in the capital.
- Cross-border movement restrictions with neighbouring East Africa states.
- Airline schedule changes, insurance repricing or route suspensions.
- Fuel, cash or telecoms disruption sustained beyond 72 hours.
- Public statements setting dates for elections, verdicts or demobilisation.
Any two indicators firing inside the same week should prompt a review of movement authorisations and a refreshed country brief.
- Political environment
- Rated moderate. Kampala broadly permissive; ADF activity spills across the DRC border. Regional Ebola/Marburg outbreaks periodically constrain travel.
- Security environment
- Security rated moderate; terrorism high, conflict moderate, crime moderate.
- Operating environment
- Infrastructure rated moderate. Expect procurement, permitting and utility reliability to shape delivery timelines more than headline security.
- Travel environment
- Travel risk rated moderate. 1 airport record held on the aviation board.
- Maritime
- Landlocked or no port records held; maritime exposure is indirect through corridor dependency.
- Border environment
- 8 land crossing records held, with status and operating considerations on the border board.
- Humanitarian access
- Access rated moderate; health and medical environment rated moderate.
- Outlook
- Risk direction is expected to track political and security developments in the principal operating centres.
How the Uganda rating is built
Category ratings are analyst-assigned on the 1–5 scale, then averaged across 14 domains. The overall rating is set by the desk and cross-checked against that average; a divergence is deliberate and explained in the analyst assessment.
- TerrorismHigh · 3.5
- Political instabilityModerate · 2.0
- Conflict zonesModerate · 2.0
- Violent & organised crimeModerate · 2.0
- Civil unrest & protestModerate · 2.0
- Kidnap & ransomModerate · 2.0
What stands behind the Uganda record
Tier 1 sources feeding this assessment, with NATO reliability grade and collection layer. Corroboration and verification tiers are listed in the full registry.
- ACLEDCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedConflict & armed groups
- UN OCHA / HDXCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedEarly warning & emergencies
- ReliefWebCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedEarly warning & emergencies
- Insecurity InsightCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedConflict & armed groups
- UN agenciesCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedEarly warning & emergencies
- Government sourcesCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedStrategic & political risk
- Local African mediaUsually reliable — sound record, occasional correction neededConflict & armed groups
- Satellite & geospatial dataCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedGEOINT & remote sensing
Personalised Uganda intelligence brief
Tailor the brief to your organisation and audience, then export to PDF or standalone HTML. Every export carries numbered citations for each source used and a stated limitations section. Download the citations appendix as CSV to analyse or reuse the underlying source records.