Nigeria
Continent's largest economy. Simultaneous threat streams: Boko Haram/ISWAP in the north-east, banditry in the north-west, IPOB agitation in the south-east, Gulf of Guinea maritime crime.
- Overall risk
- High
- Risk trend
- Increasing
- Confidence
- High
- Last reviewed
- 15 September 2026
- Intelligence coverage
- Active
- Political instabilityModerate
- TerrorismHigh
- Conflict zonesHigh
- Violent & organised crimeHigh
- Civil unrest & protestModerate
- Kidnap & ransomHigh
- Travel riskHigh
- Infrastructure & powerHigh
| Category | Current risk | Trend | Change | Confidence | Reviewed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall risk | High | deteriorating | +1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Political instability | Moderate | deteriorating | +2 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Terrorism | High | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Conflict zones | High | deteriorating | +1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Violent & organised crime | High | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Civil unrest & protest | Moderate | deteriorating | +1 | moderate | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Kidnap & ransom | High | stable | 0 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Travel risk | High | stable | 0 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Infrastructure & power | High | stable | 0 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Health & medical | High | deteriorating | +1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Maritime security | High | deteriorating | +1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Cyber threats | High | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Humanitarian access | High | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Climate & natural hazard | High | deteriorating | +1 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
| Disinformation & influence ops | High | deteriorating | +2 | high | 15 Sept 2026 |
Direction and change reflect movement in recorded incident tempo against the previous assessment block. Confidence reflects the density of corroborated reporting held for that category, not the severity of the rating.
| Minor | Moderate | Serious | Major | Severe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain | |||||
| Likely | |||||
| Possible | |||||
| Unlikely | |||||
| Rare |
Select a category chip to see how its placement was reached.
Highlighted bars are the most recent four weeks — the window the desk uses for tempo comparison.
- Terrorism1
- Elections1
- Airport disruption1
- High2
- Moderate1
- LOS · Murtala Muhammed IntlLagos · average delay 30 minLandside congestion and fuel-supply friction affect turnarounds.
- ABV · Nnamdi Azikiwe IntlAbuja · average delay 25 minSecure terminal; risk concentrates on airport road at night.
- TerrorismHighSource reliability A · confidence 2
JNIM ambush on military convoy in Sahel triangle
Tillabéri region, Niger
Coordinated ambush on FDS patrol using IEDs and small arms. Follows uptick in JNIM activity along the Mali–Niger–Burkina tri-border.
Operational implication: review movement authorisations affecting Tillabéri region and confirm that journey plans account for terrorism exposure.
Source: OSINT · liaison networks
- ElectionsModerateSource reliability B · confidence 3
Campaign rally clashes ahead of general election
Kaduna, Nigeria
Rival party supporters clashed at a rally; police used tear gas. Increased security posture expected in the fortnight before polling.
Operational implication: review movement authorisations affecting Kaduna and confirm that journey plans account for elections exposure.
Source: OSINT
- Airport disruptionHighSource reliability C · confidence 4
Bomb threat prompts terminal evacuation
Murtala Muhammed International, Nigeria
Domestic terminal evacuated for 90 minutes. Operations resumed after sweep declared negative. Passenger disruption ongoing through evening.
Operational implication: review movement authorisations affecting Murtala Muhammed International and confirm that journey plans account for airport disruption exposure.
Source: Airport authority
Grading follows a NATO-style source reliability (A–F) and information confidence (1–5) framework. INGO ADVISORY has no NATO affiliation.
What happened
Nigeria is currently assessed at high overall risk. Continent's largest economy. Simultaneous threat streams: Boko Haram/ISWAP in the north-east, banditry in the north-west, IPOB agitation in the south-east, Gulf of Guinea maritime crime.
Why it matters
The rating shapes three practical things for organisations operating here: whether movement needs authorisation, how much lead time a journey plan requires, and what medical and evacuation cover has to be in place before anyone travels. Armed conflict dynamics continue to set the baseline for access and movement planning.
What happens next
Expect the current pattern to hold over the next 30 days absent a political trigger. The realistic worst case is a short, sharp deterioration around Abuja rather than a sustained continental shift — plan for disruption measured in days, not weeks.
Operational implications
Journey management, vetted transport and a working check-in schedule carry more weight here than additional analysis. Where categories are rated High or above, treat movement as authorisation-based rather than notification-based.
Recommended actions
Refresh the country brief before any new deployment, confirm the in-country contact list is current, rehearse the escalation path with the response desk, and set explicit hold and withdrawal criteria in writing.
Principal drivers
- Armed conflict dynamics continue to set the baseline for access and movement planning.
- Attack intent against soft targets in urban centres remains the principal mass-casualty risk.
- Kidnap-for-ransom economics persist along peripheral corridors and require route-level controls.
- Maritime interference risk shapes cargo scheduling and crew posture on approach routes.
- Medical infrastructure gaps drive the requirement for pre-arranged evacuation capacity.
- Security force redeployments or curfew announcements in the capital.
- Cross-border movement restrictions with neighbouring West Africa states.
- Airline schedule changes, insurance repricing or route suspensions.
- Fuel, cash or telecoms disruption sustained beyond 72 hours.
- Public statements setting dates for elections, verdicts or demobilisation.
Any two indicators firing inside the same week should prompt a review of movement authorisations and a refreshed country brief.
- Political environment
- Rated moderate. Continent's largest economy. Simultaneous threat streams: Boko Haram/ISWAP in the north-east, banditry in the north-west, IPOB agitation in the south-east, Gulf of Guinea maritime crime.
- Security environment
- Security rated high; terrorism high, conflict high, crime high.
- Operating environment
- Infrastructure rated high. Expect procurement, permitting and utility reliability to shape delivery timelines more than headline security.
- Travel environment
- Travel risk rated high. 2 airport records held on the aviation board.
- Maritime
- Maritime security rated high across 3 port records.
- Border environment
- 4 land crossing records held, with status and operating considerations on the border board.
- Humanitarian access
- Access rated high; health and medical environment rated high.
- Outlook
- Banditry; Boko Haram; oil theft
- Mali5.0 · Critical
- Burkina Faso5.0 · Critical
- Niger3.5 · High
- Nigeria3.5 · High
- Mauritania2.0 · Moderate
- Guinea-Bissau2.0 · Moderate
- Guinea2.0 · Moderate
- Sierra Leone2.0 · Moderate
- Liberia2.0 · Moderate
- Côte d'Ivoire2.0 · Moderate
How the Nigeria rating is built
Category ratings are analyst-assigned on the 1–5 scale, then averaged across 14 domains. The overall rating is set by the desk and cross-checked against that average; a divergence is deliberate and explained in the analyst assessment.
- TerrorismHigh · 3.5
- Conflict zonesHigh · 3.5
- Violent & organised crimeHigh · 3.5
- Kidnap & ransomHigh · 3.5
- Travel riskHigh · 3.5
- Infrastructure & powerHigh · 3.5
What stands behind the Nigeria record
Tier 1 sources feeding this assessment, with NATO reliability grade and collection layer. Corroboration and verification tiers are listed in the full registry.
- ACLEDCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedConflict & armed groups
- UN OCHA / HDXCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedEarly warning & emergencies
- ReliefWebCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedEarly warning & emergencies
- Insecurity InsightCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedConflict & armed groups
- UN agenciesCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedEarly warning & emergencies
- Government sourcesCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedStrategic & political risk
- Local African mediaUsually reliable — sound record, occasional correction neededConflict & armed groups
- Satellite & geospatial dataCompletely reliable — institutional record, methodology publishedGEOINT & remote sensing
Personalised Nigeria intelligence brief
Tailor the brief to your organisation and audience, then export to PDF or standalone HTML. Every export carries numbered citations for each source used and a stated limitations section. Download the citations appendix as CSV to analyse or reuse the underlying source records.