State behaviour and alignment
How governments in the Horn position themselves towards each other, towards Gulf states and towards wider powers, and how those choices change security conditions on the ground.
Research discipline
Geopolitical Analysis
Independent, non-commercial research into how political and inter-state developments across East Africa and the Horn of Africa change the security environment for people, organisations and operations.
All work is compiled from publicly available sources. Assessments are analytical judgements, not statements of certainty, and each carries a confidence level and its sources.
What this research covers
Contested borders and territory
Ethiopia–Eritrea, the Ethiopia–Somalia frontier, Somaliland's status, Sudan–South Sudan and the Kenya–Somalia border area, examined through publicly reported developments.
Red Sea and Gulf of Aden competition
Port arrangements, naval presence, maritime interdiction and shipping disruption, and what these mean for movement, supply and staff exposure.
Political transition and legitimacy
Elections, constitutional disputes, federal-member-state friction and contested authority, treated as risk drivers rather than as party politics.
Armed actors and external support
Publicly reported relationships between armed groups, states and financiers, with the limits of open-source attribution stated in each assessment.
Economic and resource pressure
Currency stress, fuel and food pricing, remittances, aid reduction and resource disputes, and the security consequences reported alongside them.
Skills applied
Skills this work requires
- Structured analytical technique, including alternative explanations and stated confidence
- Source assessment and corroboration across open reporting, official statements and primary documents
- Political and conflict analysis at national and sub-national level
- Indicator design and trend monitoring for early warning
- Translating political developments into operational and duty-of-care implications
- Clear written reporting for security managers and non-specialist decision makers
Professional development
Qualification and study
- Security risk management practice and ISO 31000 risk principles (applied in the assessments published here)
- Threat intelligence and open-source research methodology (continuing development)
- Conflict and political analysis reading programme covering the Horn of Africa (ongoing)
Certificates and qualification records are provided on request. Nothing listed here is presented as a completed award unless it is described as completed.