Executive View

Africa Risk Overview

Board-level posture across 10 African regions and 40 countries, computed from 1000 published intelligence records in the last 30 days.

Continental risk posture
58
Severe
+58 vs prior 30 days

Composite of severity mix and reporting volume across the published library. Index runs 0–100; see methodology.

Critical
28
3% of reporting
Severe
294
29% of reporting
Substantial
0
0% of reporting
Moderate
650
65% of reporting
Low
28
3% of reporting

Key indicators

Live dataset
Reported events (30d)
1000
+1000
vs 0 in the prior 30 days
Critical-severity events
28
+28
3% of reporting
Countries with activity
40
+40
10 African regions represented
Maritime & chokepoint alerts
3
+3
Gulf of Aden, Red Sea approaches, Gulf of Guinea
A-graded sourcing
0%
0 events on NATO A-rated sources
High-confidence assessments
0%
0 events analyst-graded high
Countries under standing watch
50
0 rated substantial or severe, 5 critical
Published briefings & reports
74
Library available to clients

Regional risk board

  • SahelSevere119 events · 1 critical · 4 countries+119
    Most reported: Niger
  • Horn of AfricaSevere125 events · 2 critical · 4 countries+125
    Most reported: South Sudan
  • Great LakesSevere49 events · 8 critical · 3 countries+49
    Most reported: Uganda
  • West AfricaSevere484 events · 3 critical · 8 countries+484
    Most reported: Nigeria
  • Central AfricaSevere85 events · 14 critical · 5 countries+85
    Most reported: DR Congo
  • Indian OceanSevere2 events · 0 critical · 1 countries+2
    Most reported: Madagascar
  • Southern AfricaSevere49 events · 0 critical · 8 countries+49
    Most reported: South Africa
  • East AfricaSubstantial52 events · 0 critical · 2 countries+52
    Most reported: Kenya
  • North AfricaSubstantial33 events · 0 critical · 5 countries+33
    Most reported: Algeria
  • UnattributedModerate2 events · 0 critical · 0 countries+2

Countries in focus

  • DR Congo71 · 14 crit
  • Uganda45 · 7 crit
  • Nigeria357 · 2 crit
  • Sudan39 · 2 crit
  • Niger100 · 1 crit
  • Liberia8 · 1 crit
  • Rwanda3 · 1 crit
  • Ghana80 · 0 crit

Reporting by domain

  • incident861 · 25 crit
  • briefing76 · 2 crit
  • insight55 · 1 crit
  • environmental5 · 0 crit
  • maritime3 · 0 crit

Critical threats

8
  • CriticalDR Congoincident31 Aug 2026

    Uganda marks end of Ebola disease outbreak

    Uganda Médecins Sans Frontières After 42 days without any new confirmed cases of Bundibugyo virus, 27 August marks the official end of the Ebola outbreak in Uganda . This outbreak involved 20 infected people, 18 of whom recovered, while two people sad

    ReliefWebConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • CriticalNigeriaincident30 Aug 2026

    Nigerian govt agencies and the need to build trust beyond announcements

    By Israel Fagbemigun One of the most recurring problems confronting Nigeria since independence is not simply the failure of government policies, but the growing distance between government and the people it governs. Over the decades, Nigerians have witnessed military coups, prolonged military rule, democratic transitio

    Vanguard (Nigeria)Confidence unconfirmedSource
  • CriticalDR Congoincident29 Aug 2026

    DR Congo begins vaccinating against largest and deadliest Ebola outbreak

    70,000 Ervebo vaccine doses have been sent to DR Congo in hope they prove effective against the Bundibugyo strain.

    Al Jazeera (Africa desk)Confidence unconfirmedSource
  • CriticalNigerbriefing29 Aug 2026

    Tentative de coup d’État au Niger : l’armée et les Russes d’Africa Corps affirment avoir repris la base 101

    Une mutinerie a éclaté à Niamey dans la nuit du vendredi 28 au samedi 29 août, ciblant la présidence, l’aéroport et la télévision. La tentative de coup d’État, menée par de jeunes officiers, aurait été mise en échec samedi dans la soirée par la junte, avec l’aide des Russes d’Africa Corps. Retour sur une journée de com

    Jeune AfriqueConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • CriticalDR Congoincident28 Aug 2026

    Ebola spreads to two new zones in DRC; 60 areas now affected

    DRC's is the fastest-spreading Ebola outbreak ever recorded, with 5,794 confirmed cases and 2,786 deaths.

    Al Jazeera (Africa desk)Confidence unconfirmedSource
  • CriticalUgandainsight28 Aug 2026

    Uganda Announces End of Ebola Outbreak , Yet Regional Risks Remain

    Uganda Announces End of Ebola Outbreak , Yet Regional Risks Remain. Reported by ipsnews.net and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.

    GDELT · ipsnews.netConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • CriticalSudanincident28 Aug 2026

    Two-year curfew lifted in Sudan’s capital

    Sudan’s military-led government has lifted a curfew and state of emergency in Khartoum imposed more than two years ago, state media says. The authorities are taking this step 18 months…

    Capital FM News (Kenya)Confidence unconfirmedSource
  • CriticalSudanincident28 Aug 2026

    Sudan lifts two-year curfew in Khartoum amid ongoing war

    Sudan has lifted a two-year-old night-time curfew and a state of emergency in the capital, Khartoum, in a move authorities say will allow residents to move and work around the clock.

    AfricanewsConfidence unconfirmedSource

Severe threats

8
  • SevereNigeriaincident31 Aug 2026

    Peace Accord: 870 killed in election violence in 11 years

    Nigeria’s struggle with electoral violence has continued despite repeated peace accords signed by political parties and candidates, with no fewer than 870 people reportedly killed in election-related violence since the National Peace Committee began its intervention in 2015. The figure has renewed concerns over the eff

    Punch (Nigeria)Confidence unconfirmedSource
  • SevereCameroonincident31 Aug 2026

    Communities in Cameroon take an active role in preventing cholera

    Cameroon Médecins Sans Frontières Placing communities in Cameroon at the heart of cholera prevention efforts is the basis of a new initiative between Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and Cameroon’s Ministry of Health (MoH). The project – launched i

    ReliefWebConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • SevereGhanaincident30 Aug 2026

    Ghanaian - Nigerian Pastor Found Dead , Colleague Missing After Abduction In Plateau As Gunmen Kill Three Others Overnight

    Ghanaian - Nigerian Pastor Found Dead , Colleague Missing After Abduction In Plateau As Gunmen Kill Three Others Overnight. Reported by saharareporters.com and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.

    GDELT · saharareporters.comConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • SevereNigerincident30 Aug 2026

    Niger : CAN seeks permanent security presence in Borgu over Mosque abductions

    Niger : CAN seeks permanent security presence in Borgu over Mosque abductions. Reported by dailypost.ng and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.

    GDELT · dailypost.ngConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • SevereSudanincident30 Aug 2026

    Sudan Blue Nile sees mass displacement as clashes trigger crisis

    Sudan Blue Nile sees mass displacement as clashes trigger crisis. Reported by news.az and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.

    GDELT · news.azConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • SevereNigeriaincident30 Aug 2026

    Abducted Plateau pastor found dead, four others reportedly killed

    The deceased pastor was identified as Hills Emmanuel, a former pastor with Dunamis Church and founder of The Wonderful Grace of God Evangelical Ministry in Bokkos The post Abducted Plateau pastor found dead, four others reportedly killed appeared first on Premium Times Nigeria.

    Premium Times (Nigeria)Confidence unconfirmedSource
  • SevereNigerincident30 Aug 2026

    Borgu abduction : Niger CAN wants tighter security around worship centres

    Borgu abduction : Niger CAN wants tighter security around worship centres. Reported by tribuneonlineng.com and surfaced through GDELT global news monitoring.

    GDELT · tribuneonlineng.comConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • SevereNigeriaincident30 Aug 2026

    Filmhouse confirms machete attack at Lekki IMAX, strengthens security

    Police say the suspected attacker stabbed one security guard to death and injured another before a mob overpowered and killed him. The post Filmhouse confirms machete attack at Lekki IMAX, strengthens security appeared first on Premium Times Nigeria.

    Premium Times (Nigeria)Confidence unconfirmedSource

Emerging signals

8
  • SevereNigeriaincident31 Aug 2026

    Peace Accord: 870 killed in election violence in 11 years

    Nigeria’s struggle with electoral violence has continued despite repeated peace accords signed by political parties and candidates, with no fewer than 870 people reportedly killed in election-related violence since the National Peace Committee began its intervention in 2015. The figure has renewed concerns over the eff

    Punch (Nigeria)Confidence unconfirmedSource
  • ModerateNigeriaincident31 Aug 2026

    Troops kill terrorists, recover weapons in Katsina, Sokoto, Plateau

    Nigerian troops neutralised terrorists and recovered weapons in clearance operations across Katsina, Sokoto, and Plateau states, enhancing regional securit Read More:

    Punch (Nigeria)Confidence unconfirmedSource
  • ModerateNigeriaincident31 Aug 2026

    Seven suspected car snatchers nabbed in Oyo, Abuja

    Operatives of the Nigeria Police Force in Abuja and Oyo State have arrested seven suspected members of separate interstate armed robbery, car snatching, and truck-hijacking syndicates. PUNCH Metro learnt this in separate statements by the Force Public Relations Officer, Ani Iniedu, and the Oyo State Police Public Relat

    Punch (Nigeria)Confidence unconfirmedSource
  • ModerateBurkina Fasoincident31 Aug 2026

    Togo - Mise à jour des messages clés : Des résultats de Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC) persistent dans les Kpendjals au pic de la soudure, Juillet 2026 - Janvier 2027

    Togo Famine Early Warning System Network Messages clé En ce mois de juillet 2026, l'insécurité alimentaire aigue dans les préfectures d

    ReliefWebConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • ModerateBurkina Fasoincident31 Aug 2026

    Togo - Key Message Update: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the Kpendjals at the peak of lean season, July 2026 - January 2027

    Togo Famine Early Warning System Network Key Messages In July 2026, food security conditions in Kpendjal and Kpendjal-Ouest prefectures

    ReliefWebConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • CriticalDR Congoincident31 Aug 2026

    Uganda marks end of Ebola disease outbreak

    Uganda Médecins Sans Frontières After 42 days without any new confirmed cases of Bundibugyo virus, 27 August marks the official end of the Ebola outbreak in Uganda . This outbreak involved 20 infected people, 18 of whom recovered, while two people sad

    ReliefWebConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • SevereCameroonincident31 Aug 2026

    Communities in Cameroon take an active role in preventing cholera

    Cameroon Médecins Sans Frontières Placing communities in Cameroon at the heart of cholera prevention efforts is the basis of a new initiative between Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and Cameroon’s Ministry of Health (MoH). The project – launched i

    ReliefWebConfidence unconfirmedSource
  • ModerateNigeriaincident31 Aug 2026

    Nigerian Army X account hit in second military cyber breach

    The Nigerian Army has reported an attempted unauthorised access to its official X account, marking the second reported cyber breach involving a Nigerian military social media account in about two weeks. The Army’s account began publishing memecoin-related updates at about 3:50 p.m. on Saturday, before the development w

    Vanguard (Nigeria)Confidence unconfirmedSource
Standing watch covers 50 countries (0 substantial or severe, 5 critical). Generated 31 Aug 2026 · latest reporting 31 Aug 2026.Open Situation Room