INGO ADVISORYAfrica Risk Intelligence & Security Advisory
Executive Dashboard

INGO ADVISORY Africa Risk Index

Board-ready snapshot of current threat conditions across eight strategic domains — updated through ongoing analyst monitoring from the INGO ADVISORY Situation Room.

INGO ADVISORY Africa Risk Index — Overall Assessment
High

Composite index across 26 tracked incidents. 4 critical events active.

Threat Level Scale
Low
Guarded
Elevated
HighCurrent
Critical

Strategic Threat Domains

Live
Terrorism
High
3 events· 1 critical
Rising
Kidnap
High
7 events· 2 critical
Rising
Political Stability
Elevated
5 events
Rising
Crime
High
4 events· 1 critical
Rising
Cyber
Elevated
2 events
Rising
Maritime
High
4 events· 1 critical
Rising
Travel
Elevated
7 events
Rising
Infrastructure
High
7 events· 2 critical
Rising

Intelligence Modules

12 desks · continuously refreshed
Live feed

Current Incidents

  • Anti-ship missile targets commercial tanker in Bab el-Mandeb
    Yemen / Red Sea·12m ago·critical
  • Attempted boarding of bulk carrier off Eyl coast
    Somalia·47m ago·high
  • VBIED detonates near government complex in Mogadishu
    Somalia·1h ago·critical
  • JNIM ambush on military convoy in Sahel triangle
    Niger·2h ago·high
  • Fresh RSF–SAF clashes reported in El Fasher
    Sudan·3h ago·critical
  • USV sighted transiting southern Red Sea
    Yemen / Red Sea·4h ago·high
Full situation room
30-day velocity

Top Emerging Risks

  • JNIM expansion into littoral West Africa
    Togo · Benin · Côte d'Ivoire
    92
  • Red Sea insurance premia repricing
    Bab el-Mandeb · Suez
    78
  • Sahel junta bloc — ECOWAS decoupling
    Mali · Burkina · Niger
    71
  • Cholera resurgence in the Horn
    Somalia · Ethiopia · Sudan
    64
  • DRC M23 renewed advance
    North Kivu
    58
Elections · transitions

Political Calendar

  • Aug
    9
    Rwanda
    Presidential election
    moderate
  • Sep
    12
    Guinea-Bissau
    Legislative elections
    high
  • Oct
    5
    Côte d'Ivoire
    Presidential first round
    high
  • Oct
    18
    Cameroon
    Presidential poll
    high
  • Dec
    15
    DRC
    Provincial governor votes
    moderate
Red Sea · Gulf of Aden · Guinea

Maritime Alerts

Bab el-Mandeb
Critical
Somali Basin
High
Gulf of Guinea
Elevated
  • Bab el-Mandeb Strait — Anti-ship missile targets commercial tanker in Bab el-Mandeb
  • 80nm east of Eyl — Attempted boarding of bulk carrier off Eyl coast
  • South of Hodeidah — USV sighted transiting southern Red Sea
  • 120nm south of Lomé — Suspicious approach — Gulf of Guinea
Operational impact

Weather & Climate

  • Horn of Africa
    Deyr rains — flooding
    high
  • Sahel
    Dust storms, poor visibility
    moderate
  • Mozambique Channel
    Tropical system forming
    high
  • Southern Africa
    Heatwave — 42°C peaks
    moderate
Trade corridors

Supply Chain

  • Djibouti → Addis Ababa
    Convoy delays, +36h
    Degraded
  • Mombasa → Kampala
    Border wait 4h
    Nominal
  • Lagos → Kano
    Banditry, Kaduna axis
    Watch
  • Suez transit
    Reroutes via Cape
    Disrupted
Do-not-travel · reconsider

Travel Advisories

  • L4
    Sudan
    Do not travel — active conflict
  • L4
    Mali
    Do not travel — terrorism, kidnap
  • L4
    Burkina Faso
    Do not travel — JNIM/ISGS
  • L4
    Somalia
    Do not travel — armed protection required
  • L4
    DRC (east)
    Do not travel — M23 activity
  • L3
    Nigeria (north)
    Reconsider travel — banditry
Probabilistic outlook

Conflict Forecasts

  • Sudan (RSF vs SAF)
    Escalation — Kordofan front
    88%
    30d
  • Sahel tri-border
    JNIM territorial gains
    74%
    60d
  • Eastern DRC
    Renewed M23 offensive
    66%
    30d
  • Northern Mozambique
    ISIS-M resurgence
    52%
    90d
Commercial GEOINT

Satellite Imagery

GEOINT
6h ago
El Fasher perimeter
Sudan · SAF/RSF
GEOINT
12h ago
Port Sudan berths
Maritime · logistics
GEOINT
1d ago
Goma displacement camps
DRC · humanitarian
GEOINT
2d ago
Assab naval buildup
Eritrea · basing
Open-source signal

News Correlation

  • Sahel militancy
    42 sources · 24h
    -0.71
    sentiment
  • Red Sea shipping
    38 sources · 24h
    -0.63
    sentiment
  • DRC humanitarian
    27 sources · 24h
    -0.55
    sentiment
  • Kenya economic outlook
    19 sources · 24h
    -0.12
    sentiment
  • Rwanda diplomacy
    14 sources · 24h
    +0.08
    sentiment
Desk notes

Analyst Comments

  • H. Njoroge
    34m
    Horn of Africa lead

    Cholera trajectory in Baidoa now doubling weekly — expect NGO route reviews within 10 days.

  • M. Diallo
    2h
    Sahel desk

    JNIM's targeting pattern is shifting south of the Niger river; littoral states should treat this as an amber trigger.

  • L. Okafor
    5h
    Maritime

    Insurance cover for Bab el-Mandeb transits repricing again; expect operator reroute decisions this week.

Model-driven horizon

Predictive Alerts

  • Election-window unrest — Côte d'Ivoire
    T-14d · confidence 82%
  • Piracy incident cluster — Somali Basin
    T-7d · confidence 68%
  • Border closure — Niger/Benin
    T-21d · confidence 61%
  • Cyber campaign — telcos, southern Africa
    T-10d · confidence 54%

Model outputs are analyst-reviewed. Categories: Terrorism · Civil unrest · Piracy · Red Sea…

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